selecting the most economic project under uncertainty using bootstrap technique and fuzzy simulation

نویسندگان

kamran shahanaghi

armin jabbarzadeh

mohammad hamidi

mohammad ghodoosi

چکیده

this article, by leaving pre-determined membership function of a fuzzy set which is a basic assumption for such subject, will try to propose a hybrid technique to select the most economic project among alternative projects in fuzziness interest rates condition. in this way, net present worth (npw) would be the economic indicator. this article tries to challenge the assumption of large sample sizes availability for membership function determination and shows that some other techniques may have less accuracy. to give a robust solution, bootstrapping and fuzzy simulation is suggested and a numerical example is given and analyzed.

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Selecting the Most Economic Project under Uncertainty Using Bootstrap Technique and Fuzzy Simulation

This article, by leaving pre-determined membership function of a fuzzy set which is a basic assumption for such subject, will try to propose a hybrid technique to select the most economic project among alternative projects in fuzziness interest rates condition. In this way, net present worth (NPW) would be the economic indicator. This article tries to challenge the assumption of large sample si...

متن کامل

Determining production level under uncertainty using fuzzy simulation and bootstrap technique, a case study

In every production plant, it is necessary to have an estimation of production level. Sometimes there are many parameters affective in this estimation. In this paper, it tried to find an appropriate estimation of production level for an industrial factory called Barez in an uncertain environment. We have considered a part of production line, which has different production time for different kin...

متن کامل

Project scheduling under uncertainty using fuzzy modelling and solving techniques

In the real world, projects are subject to numerous uncertainties at different levels of planning. Fuzzy project scheduling is one of the approaches that deal with uncertainties in project scheduling problem. In this paper, we provide a new technique that keeps uncertainty at all steps of the modelling and solving procedure by considering a fuzzy modelling of the workload inspired from the fuzz...

متن کامل

Economic Rationality under Uncertainty

Though uncertainty pervades all aspects of life and human action, it has a rather short history in economics. Surprisingly, Daniel Bernoulli’s (1738) notion of expected utility, which suggests that (in games of chance) monetary risky ventures ought to be evaluated by the sum of utilities of outcomes weighted by the corresponding probabilities, was not immediately used in economic theory. Indeed...

متن کامل

Investigating Mortality Uncertainty Using the Block Bootstrap

This paper proposes a block bootstrap method for measuring mortality risk under the Lee-Carter model framework. In order to take account of all sources of risk the process risk, the parameter risk, and the model risk properly, a block bootstrap is needed to cope with the spatial dependence found in the residuals. As a result, the prediction intervals we obtain for life expectancy are more accur...

متن کامل

Using fuzzy FMEA and fuzzy logic in project risk management

Risk management is one of the most important phases of project management and isthe most recently used by many researchers. In this paper, a fuzzy based method wasproposed which identifies different kinds of risks through the project life cycle.Then, the project risk magnitude can be obtained in regards to five factors, namely“severity”, “occurrence”, and “not detection” which form fuzzy FMEA a...

متن کامل

منابع من

با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید


عنوان ژورنال:
iranian journal of management studies

ناشر: university of tehran, farabi college

ISSN 2008-7055

دوره 5

شماره 5-1 2012

کلمات کلیدی

میزبانی شده توسط پلتفرم ابری doprax.com

copyright © 2015-2023